Edge Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class I Philip Tetlock
edge.org/conversation/philip_tetlock-edge-master-class-2015-a-short-course-in-superforecasting-class-i
From the page
Saved with the link. Notes from 2007 to 2016 are mostly the page's own words, so this is probably an excerpt.
Forecasting Tournaments: What We Discover When We Start Scoring Accuracy