Contrarians Start Here - by Doug Clinton

I read this with particular interest because I wonder if as we age, as we have experiences that work, if it isn't harder and doesn't require more effort to remain open to particularly uncomfortable tests of our assumptions.

The importance of non-consensus ideas is often cited in the investment world. By definition, if investors do the same thing as everyone else in the market, whether right or wrong, they will achieve average results. It is the job of professional investors to generate extraordinary results, otherwise the clients of those investors are better off just buying a low-fee market index.

Clinton goes on to illustrate four key concepts, along with additional techniques, to aid in analyzing a topic from a contrarian state of mind.

• The Core Concept: The non-consensus idea is the only way to achieve extraordinary results in anything.
• Concept 2: Consensus forms around probability and acceptability.
• Concept 3: To be non-consensus, you must get uncomfortable by defying odds or breaking rules.
• Concept 4: There are 11 techniques for generating or identifying non-consensus ideas.

I like this final call-out.

Contrarians live with two mandates:

1. Explore the uncomfortable, which is whatever seems unlikely or unacceptable. 
   

2. Be right, whether in conformity or dissent. 
   

This feels like a skill to be mindful of.