# My Software Estimation Technique - Jacob Kaplan-Moss

<https://jacobian.org/2021/may/25/my-estimation-technique/>

- Host: [jacobian.org](https://links.thingelstad.xyz/hosts/jacobian.org/)
- Saved: June 3, 2021 (2021-06-03T11:39:22Z)
- Record: https://links.thingelstad.xyz/links/c8d70f160530/
- JSON: https://links.thingelstad.xyz/links/c8d70f160530.json

## What Jamie wrote

Some great wisdom here, but I would amplify even more the uncertainty aspect. Not only do you need to capture and measure that, you also have to realize that if uncertainty is above a certain level there **is no possible time estimate**. This is why teams tend to use [Fibonacci sequences](https://www.mountaingoatsoftware.com/blog/why-the-fibonacci-sequence-works-well-for-estimating) to estimate complexity. As complexity goes up the solution time and cost goes up much more than linearly, and at some point goes parabolic to the moon.

You have to know reasonably well what you are building and how that will happen before any estimation of time is meaningful at all.

## Facts

- Kind: [Page](https://links.thingelstad.xyz/kinds/page/)

## Appears in

- [WT189: Weekly Thing #189 / TiddlyWiki, JsonLogic, Smiling](https://weekly.thingelstad.com/archive/189/), Notable

## Same host

- [A reading list for new engineering managers - Jacob Kaplan-Moss](https://links.thingelstad.xyz/links/de93e6459f1e/) (jacobian.org, April 15, 2021)
- [That Wild Ask A Manager Story - Jacob Kaplan-Moss](https://links.thingelstad.xyz/links/d9ff2d3ee678/) (jacobian.org, February 17, 2022)

## Saved the same week

- [Big Mail - Upgrade your inbox](https://links.thingelstad.xyz/links/6ebbd4d143ca/) (getbigmail.com, June 3, 2021)
- [QUIC is now RFC 9000 | Fastly](https://links.thingelstad.xyz/links/54ba2c5e9796/) (fastly.com, June 3, 2021)
- [The Unix Game](https://links.thingelstad.xyz/links/375fbace7e55/) (unixgame.io, June 3, 2021)
- [Avatar generator playground - Boring Avatars](https://links.thingelstad.xyz/links/2843b4c72201/) (boringavatars.com, June 3, 2021)
- [JsonLogic](https://links.thingelstad.xyz/links/f9acdeb0d734/) (jsonlogic.com, June 3, 2021)

## Elsewhere

- Wayback Machine: https://web.archive.org/web/*/https://jacobian.org/2021/may/25/my-estimation-technique/