Superforecasting - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecasting
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The Good Judgment Project
Crowd-sourced event prediction
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Saved with the link. Notes from 2007 to 2016 are mostly the page's own words, so this is probably an excerpt.
A number of people participated in an IARPA tournament that encouraged forecasters to update forecasts in real time. The top performers on the 2,800 tournament were categorized as superforecasters based on their Brier score. The collective Brier score of superforecasters was 0.25, compared with a score of 0.37 for other forecasters. Some discussed superforecasters included Doug Lorch, Bill Flack, and Sanford Sillman (an atmospheric scientist). Superforecasters even "performed" 30 percent better than the average for intelligence community analysts who could read secret data.